Summary
- Polymarket submitted a CFTC rulebook effective September 5, 2025, signaling a U.S. return for the NFL season after a $112 million QCEX acquisition.
- Meta ads with sportsbook-style lingo and a U.S. waitlist target football fans, especially in states with limited betting, promising legal trading in all 50 states.
- Facing competition from Kalshi and regulatory scrutiny, Polymarket offers you a CFTC-regulated platform to trade NFL outcomes like a financial market.
Get ready to trade on football games like never before! Polymarket is gearing up for a legal return to the U.S., with a new rulebook submitted to regulators and ads hinting at a big launch during the 2025 NFL season. Here’s what you need to know as a potential trader or fan.
Polymarket’s Strategic U.S. Reentry
Rulebook Signals Imminent Launch
On August 22, 2025, Polymarket sent a comprehensive rulebook to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), setting an effective date of September 5, 2025, aligning with the NFL season kickoff.
This follows an earlier draft dated August 26, showing their urgency to get back in the game. After being barred from the U.S. since 2022 due to a $1.4 million CFTC settlement for unregistered operations, Polymarket’s $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, paves the way for you to legally trade prediction market contracts.
Ad Blitz Targets Football Fans
Polymarket’s aggressive marketing campaign, including Meta ads on Facebook and Instagram, shouts their return with taglines like “BREAKING: Legal football trading is coming to ALL 50 states this fall” and “BIG NEWS Texas.
Trading on football will be LEGAL this fall.” These ads, spotted in states like Texas where sports betting is restricted, compare Polymarket’s contract “odds” to sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, making it clear they’re aiming to capture your attention during the NFL season.
They’ve also launched a waitlist for U.S. users, so you can sign up now to stay in the loop.
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How Polymarket Works for You
Prediction Markets, Not Betting
Unlike traditional sportsbooks where the house sets odds, Polymarket lets you buy and sell shares in event outcomes—like whether your favorite NFL team will win—priced between $0.01 and $1.00.
For example, a $0.60 “No” share on a team winning implies a 60% chance they’ll lose. As a trader, you set the price with others, offering a dynamic, market-driven experience that’s regulated by the CFTC, not state gambling laws.
Why This Matters
Polymarket’s return could shake up the U.S. betting scene, competing with platforms like Kalshi, which has a similar CFTC-regulated model.
Their ads, blending sportsbook lingo with financial trading, target fans in states with limited betting options, giving you a new way to engage with sports.
With $3.3 billion wagered on the 2024 U.S. election alone, Polymarket’s proven popularity means you’re joining a platform with serious momentum.
Challenges and Competition
Regulatory Pushback
While Polymarket’s acquisition of QCEX clears a major hurdle, some states and traditional sportsbooks argue these prediction markets are just sports betting in disguise.
Kalshi faced similar legal battles but won injunctions in Nevada and New Jersey, suggesting Polymarket could succeed too. You’ll want to watch how regulators respond as the NFL season nears.
Rival Kalshi in the Race
Kalshi, already operating legally in the U.S., has upped its Meta ad spending to $132,000 in mid-August 2025, focusing on political markets but also expanding football offerings like point spreads.
Polymarket enjoys 1.6 times more Google search interest than Kalshi, but the competition is heating up, meaning you’ll have multiple platforms vying for your attention with innovative markets.
What This Means for You
A New Way to Engage with Sports
As a sports fan or trader, Polymarket’s return offers you a fresh, regulated way to predict NFL and other event outcomes, potentially with higher payouts than traditional betting if you play the market right.
Their waitlist lets you get early access, and the September 5 launch could align perfectly with your football season excitement.
Stay Safe and Informed
Polymarket’s CFTC regulation ensures a safer platform than offshore sites, but you should still set limits and trade responsibly.
With ads targeting states like Texas, you might soon have legal access to markets unavailable through traditional sportsbooks, expanding your options in the growing $150 billion U.S. prediction market.
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