Football and Thanksgiving are the perfect combination since they are both very American. Although sports betting isn’t exclusive to the US, many local bettors will enjoy football betting this week in addition to their turkey.
US gamblers are expected to wager $4.5 billion this week in regulated markets, according to a recent analysis sent to clients by Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. Thanksgiving Week, according to him, is from November 25 to December 1. That prediction suggests an 11% annual rise, and although other sports, like basketball, will probably contribute to that $4.5 billion, football, lead by the NFL, will bear the majority of the burden.
This Thanksgiving, a record 38 states and Washington, DC, allow sports betting of some kind, with football being the most wagered sport in the United States. According to Beyonon, the NFL is ignoring bettors, and betting volumes will increase by 15% this week over last year. Thanksgiving features three games, and on Black Friday, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Las Vegas Raiders. The regular Sunday schedule comes next.
Additionally, college football is assisting. There are games all week long, with over a dozen the next day and at least one on Thanksgiving.
These Operators Could Gain from Thanksgiving Football
In general, the gambling sector should gain from more Thanksgiving Week wagering, but operator-level benefits won’t be consistent.
Although it is doubtful that this will change very soon, Beyonon believes that smaller rivals are gaining ground this week. The two biggest sportsbook businesses by market share are Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG). According to him, Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI), Caesars Sportsbook, and Bally’s (NYSE: BALY) ought to have the most annual Thanksgiving Week hold growth.
After two weeks of above-average holdings of 11%+, BetMGM might see substantial upside if this trend continues, the analyst stated.
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He went on to say that DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook seemed to be gaining market share based on statistics from November in New York through November 18. Another factor that promotes football betting is Thanksgiving. Bettors are more likely to place money on the three games that day since they are perceived as primetime events similar to “Monday Night Football.” For instance, according to Macquarie, primetime games accounted for 10% of handling and 37% of bets during week 12 of the NFL season.
Optimistic about Stock Betting
Beyonon has a positive outlook on stocks related to sports betting, giving Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), DraftKings, ESPN Bet parent Penn Entertainment (NASDAQ: PENN), and Rush Street Interactive “outperform” ratings.
Because of the greater gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth profile, he prefers operators who have experience with online gaming, particularly sports betting.
We like online gaming for two reasons: 1) it is the only significant gaming industry that has double-digit growth independent of the economy, and 2) it is the only industry that has continuously outperformed the market over the last two years. We project 2025E GGR to be +18% year over year and 4Q GGR of +23% (+23% online sports betting, +25% iGaming),” he said.
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