Polymarket, a betting exchange, has sparked controversy by giving odds on Pope Francis’ demise.
Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, has been hospitalized in Rome’s Gemelli Hospital since mid-February.
According to reports released on Tuesday, the 88-year-old has suffered from two episodes of “acute respiratory failure.”
According to the Vatican, the pope is on oxygen after having a procedure to remove secretions that resulted from two bronchoscopies.
While Catholics and Christians throughout the globe pray for Pope Francis’ recovery, the attitude on Polymarket, a peer-to-peer prediction market where gamblers may wager on outcomes ranging from politics and cultural events to economics and sports, is entirely different.
It’s going to far to bet on a mans life
Polymarket is not ignoring the severe crisis involving the Catholic Church’s head. The website presently has seven event contracts involving the Pope.
They range from betting on whether Francis will step down before July (15%) to “a new pope in 2025” (56%).
The last query, although not exactly mentioning death, appears to be a strong implication that Francis will die. As of Tuesday morning, more than $65,000 had been wagered on the issue.
However, the contract titled “New Pope in 2025?” has more than $710,500 invested. The current chances indicate a 72% possibility.
“You guys are all weirdos betting on this guy to pass,” one Polymarket user wrote.
Polymarket bettors believe Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, is the front-runner to become the next pope, with implied chances of 30%. The prospects of President Donald Trump meeting with Pope Francis this year are slim, with only a 6% chance.
Dr. Theodore Iwashyna, a professor of pulmonary and critical care medicine at Johns Hopkins University, told CNN that the pope’s two bronchoscopies in a short period of time likely indicate that Francis is “quite ill.”
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Francis has been pope since March 2013, when he succeeded Pope Benedict, who startled the world by announcing his resignation. Benedict, the first pope to retire in almost 600 years, served as pope emeritus until his death in 2022.
Regulatory Roundup
Polymarket reached an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an independent agency of the US government that oversees futures, swaps, and some options, in 2022, resulting in the platform’s prohibition for US consumers.
The CFTC, supported by federal law enforcement, is presently conducting an inquiry to establish if Polymarket fulfilled its half of the contract. In November, the FBI conducted a raid on Polymarket founder and CEO Shane Coplan’s Manhattan residence.
The CFTC is also questioning whether Polymarket competitor Kalshi, which accepts US customers, can provide futures for elections and sports. The CFTC has directed that the platforms it monitors, such as Kalshi, avoid transactions containing or referencing “terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any state or federal law.”
Kalshi currently has no contracts regarding the Pope’s fate.
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